DissMarket is an independent research project that measures the gap between prediction-market prices and public opinion. We run structured polls on X (formerly Twitter) that mirror live Polymarket questions, then publish the divergence: the numerical distance between what money says and what the public says. Our output is data, not commentary. We do not take positions, endorse candidates, or recommend trades.
This page exists for journalists, researchers, and anyone who wants to cite or reference DissMarket in their own work. Below you will find key facts about the project, guidance on how to use our data, downloadable assets, and contact details for press enquiries.
Project name: DissMarket (short for Dissensus Market). Founded: 2026. Founder: Neil Gallacher. Format: Free, publicly accessible data published on X and on this Notion site. Core output: The DissMarket Index, a structured comparison of Polymarket contract prices against public-opinion poll results, expressed as a divergence percentage.
Methodology: Phase 1 uses public X polls with a minimum 1,000-vote threshold. Phase 2 (planned) will introduce a verified respondent panel. Phase 3 (planned) will add calibration-weighted aggregation. Tagline: Money says X. Public says Y. Editorial stance: None. DissMarket is strictly non-partisan and does not interpret results beyond presenting the data.
When referencing our data in articles, broadcasts, or academic work, please use the following format: “According to the DissMarket Index, public opinion on [question] diverged from the Polymarket price by [X] percentage points as of [date].” Always include the date of the data point you are citing. DissMarket polls are snapshots, not continuous trackers, so the date matters.
If you are quoting the divergence number, specify whether you are citing the raw divergence (the arithmetic difference between the Polymarket price and the DissMarket poll result) or the directional divergence (which side is higher). Both numbers appear in our Format A graphics.
You do not need prior permission to cite DissMarket data in editorial or academic contexts. We ask only that you link back to our published site (efficient-chair-68b.notion.site) or to the specific X post containing the data you reference. If you plan to reproduce a Format A graphic in print or broadcast, please contact us at [email protected] for a high-resolution version.