Dissmarket combines structured public opinion polling with live prediction market data to create the most complete picture of what the world thinks — and what the money says — about the events that matter most.
Here is how it works, from your first visit to building a forecasting track record that speaks for itself.
When you arrive on Dissmarket, you will see a feed of active markets covering politics, economics, technology, culture, sports, science, and global affairs. Each market poses a clear, verifiable question — for example:
Every market displays two key data points side by side: the public opinion consensus (what the crowd thinks) and the market odds (what prediction markets and bookmakers are pricing). This dual-signal view is unique to Dissmarket and is the foundation of everything we do.
Select any market and register your prediction. You will be asked to assign a probability to each possible outcome — not just a binary yes or no, but a calibrated estimate of how likely you think each result is.
For example, if a market asks "Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its next meeting?", you might assign 65% to Yes and 35% to No. This probability-based approach is central to how we measure forecasting skill. It is not enough to be right — you need to be right and confident at the right times.
Making a prediction is free. You do not need to deposit funds, connect a crypto wallet, or place a financial bet. Dissmarket is designed so that anyone with a view can participate, regardless of their financial situation or technical sophistication.
Once you have made your prediction, Dissmarket immediately shows you how your view compares to three benchmarks:
The Crowd. This is the aggregated opinion of all Dissmarket participants who have weighed in on the same market. We use a weighted aggregation method that factors in each forecaster's historical accuracy, ensuring that the crowd signal improves over time as better forecasters contribute more.
The Market. This is the implied probability from live prediction markets, betting exchanges, and bookmakers. We aggregate data from multiple sources to produce a single, robust market-implied probability for each outcome.
The Delta. This is the gap between what the crowd thinks and what the market says. The delta is where the most interesting insights live. A large delta suggests that public opinion and financial markets are telling different stories — and understanding why is often more valuable than knowing either number in isolation.
Every prediction you make on Dissmarket is recorded and scored. We use a Brier score — the gold standard in forecasting evaluation — to measure how well-calibrated your predictions are over time.