Welcome to Dissmarket. This guide will take you from creating your account to making your first prediction in under five minutes. No wallet, no deposit, no prior experience required.
Visit dissmarket.com and click Sign Up. You can register with your email address or sign in with Google or Apple. Choose a display name — this is how you will appear on the leaderboard and in market discussions. Your display name is public, so choose something you are comfortable being known by.
That is it. Your account is ready.
Once you are logged in, you will see the Dissmarket home feed — a curated selection of active markets across categories including politics, economics, technology, science, culture, and sports.
Each market card shows you four things at a glance:
The question. A clear, verifiable question about a future event. For example: "Will the Bank of England cut interest rates at its June 2026 meeting?"
Market odds. The implied probability from live prediction markets and bookmaker data. This is what the money says.
Crowd forecast. The aggregated probability from Dissmarket participants. This is what the people think.
The delta. The gap between market odds and crowd forecast. When this number is large, the crowd and the market are telling different stories — and that is where the interesting analysis begins.
You can filter markets by category, sort by popularity or recency, and search for specific topics. Spend a few minutes browsing to get a feel for the types of questions available.
Select a market that interests you. You will see a detailed market page with the full question, resolution criteria, resolution source, end date, and a chart showing how both market odds and crowd forecast have moved over time.
To make your prediction, use the probability slider to assign your estimate to each possible outcome. For a binary market (Yes/No), you assign a probability to "Yes" — the "No" probability is automatically calculated as the complement.
For example, if you think there is a 60% chance the Bank of England will cut rates, set the slider to 60%. If you think it is almost certain, set it to 90%. If you think it is a coin flip, set it to 50%.
Click Submit Prediction and you are done. Your prediction is recorded immediately and will be scored when the market resolves.