Dissmarket is a prediction market and public opinion platform that compares what the crowd thinks against what betting markets are pricing — in real time. We aggregate structured public forecasts alongside live prediction market odds to give you the most complete picture of collective intelligence on the events that matter. Think of it as the place where your opinion meets the market — and the data keeps score.
Polymarket and Kalshi are trading platforms where you buy and sell shares representing event outcomes. Dissmarket includes prediction market data, but our core innovation is the opinion-vs-market comparison. We let anyone — not just traders — register a forecast and track their accuracy over time. You do not need to deposit funds or connect a wallet. We measure what people think, compare it to what the money says, and surface the delta. That delta is where the real insight lives.
Dissmarket is primarily a forecasting and opinion platform. We are building prediction market functionality, but participation does not require placing financial bets. You can make predictions for free, build your track record, and compete on the leaderboard based purely on the accuracy of your forecasts. We believe that forecasting skill should be accessible to everyone, not just those with capital to risk.
Dissmarket is for anyone who has a view on what is going to happen next. That includes journalists tracking public sentiment, analysts stress-testing their assumptions, policy professionals monitoring geopolitical risk, investors looking for edge, students studying forecasting, and citizens who want their voice to count. If you care about being right — not just being loud — Dissmarket is for you.
Yes. Creating an account, making predictions, and tracking your performance is free. We plan to offer premium features in the future — including advanced analytics, API access, and institutional data feeds — but the core forecasting experience will always be free.
Browse the active markets on Dissmarket, select one that interests you, and assign a probability to each possible outcome. For a binary market (Yes/No), you might assign 70% to Yes and 30% to No. Your prediction is recorded immediately and will be scored once the market resolves.
No. Dissmarket allows free, non-financial participation. You register your view as a probability estimate, and your track record is scored based on accuracy — not on how much money you risked. We are building optional prediction market trading features, but they are not required to participate.
Yes. You can update your prediction at any time before the market closes. Your final prediction at the time of market closure is the one that gets scored. We also track your prediction history within each market, so you can see how your view evolved over time.