Dissmarket is a prediction market and public opinion platform that does something no other platform does: it puts the wisdom of the crowd head-to-head against the betting markets — and keeps score.
We believe that collective intelligence is one of the most powerful and underutilised tools in the modern information landscape. Traditional polling is slow, expensive, and plagued by methodological bias. Betting markets are fast and incentive-aligned, but they reflect the views of a narrow, self-selecting group of traders. Neither tells the full story. Dissmarket tells both — and lets the data speak for itself.
Dissmarket exists to democratise forecasting. We are building the world's most transparent platform for measuring what people actually think about the events that shape our world — and comparing those views against the odds set by real-money markets.
Our mission is grounded in a simple conviction: better information leads to better decisions. Whether you are a journalist trying to gauge public sentiment, a policy analyst tracking geopolitical risk, a portfolio manager stress-testing assumptions, or a citizen who simply wants to know what the world thinks about tomorrow — Dissmarket gives you a clearer picture than any single source can provide.
The modern information ecosystem is broken in ways that matter. Cable news optimises for engagement, not accuracy. Social media amplifies the loudest voices, not the most informed ones. Polls capture a moment in time and then go stale. Betting markets reflect financial incentives that can diverge sharply from genuine belief.
Dissmarket sits at the intersection of all of these signals. We aggregate public opinion through structured polling, overlay it against live prediction market data, and surface the delta — the gap between what people believe and what the money says. That delta is where the insight lives.
When public opinion and market odds converge, confidence is high. When they diverge, something interesting is happening — and that divergence is a signal worth understanding.
We are not just another prediction market. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let you trade on outcomes. That is valuable, but it is only half the picture. Dissmarket adds the other half: structured, representative public opinion. We do not just ask what the market thinks. We ask what you think — and then we show you how your view stacks up against the crowd, the markets, and reality.
We are not just another polling platform. Traditional pollsters publish results and move on. Dissmarket tracks opinion over time, compares it dynamically against market odds, and creates a living record of collective judgment. Our data is persistent, comparative, and transparent.
We treat prediction as a skill. On Dissmarket, your forecasting track record matters. We score predictions, rank forecasters, and reward accuracy. The best predictors build reputation — and reputation, on Dissmarket, is earned in public. Your takes become legend not because they were loud, but because they were right.
Transparency above all. Every data point on Dissmarket is visible. We publish our methodology, show our sources, and never hide behind proprietary black boxes. If we change how we calculate something, we tell you why.
Neutrality by design. Dissmarket does not take sides. We do not editorialize our markets or weight our polls to favor any outcome. The platform reflects what people think and what the markets say — nothing more, nothing less.
Accuracy as currency. We believe that being right should matter more than being loud. Our scoring system rewards calibration — the ability to assign probabilities that match reality over time. This is not a platform for hot takes. It is a platform for informed ones.
Accessibility without compromise. Prediction markets have historically been the domain of crypto-native traders and quantitative finance professionals. Dissmarket is built for everyone — from seasoned forecasters to first-time participants. You do not need a wallet, a trading account, or a statistics degree. You need a view and the willingness to put it on the record.